By a high star our course is set

Good News
In the time of the Covid-19 pandemic, people die but new lives also begin. So it felt wonderful beyond words to receive news of the birth of the newest addition to my extended family, another Grand Niece, daughter of my Leapling niece, Rebecca. Welcome to Charlotte Isabelle Gaunt. She begins her life in 2020 and is surrounded by people who are already in love with her. Blessings be on her forever. The Irish poet Louis Macneice ends his poem Thalassa with the following words that I bequeath to Charlotte Isabelle:

By a high star our course is set,

Our end is Life. Put out to sea.

Rolled on by a horse....

(Genuinely) Clever Clive and (Genuinely) Buffoonish Boris
The late (clever and funny) Clive James wrote after an early Boris Johnson appearance as (short-lived) Foreign Secretary:

Boris gave an immediate impression of total dishevelment. It’s not his clothes and coiffure, but his personality that makes him look as if he had been rolled on by a horse and then seduced by it.

Clive James’s later poetry, like his TV and cultural criticism disarmed as well as skewered pomposity – he was that rare beast in public life, someone who wore his learning lightly. Unlike our current Prime Minister who likes to obfuscate the truth beneath bluster. Only Boris Johnson could answer a question on the traitorous Fake FactCheck site set up by the Tories with reference to:

“hunting the snark.… Fermat’s last theorem…. the riddle of the Sphinx…. the Bermuda triangle…. croutons….”

(Search for it on the internet if you don’t believe me – Boris Johnson answering question about fact check website.) His answer was designed to provoke laughter and to deflect from the serious accusation in the question. It’s a well-known technique that clever students use in Debating Societies in schools and universities time and again.

A sheep, a shark, a drunk and a lozenge
Check out the Jeremy Vine account admiring Boris Johnson’s apparent genius when Johnson gave what seemed like a spontaneous after-dinner speech…. It’s a clear example of our current Prime Minister’s elusive smoke and mirrors trickery. The winter election next Thursday seems to be framed around the future. Promises, promises…. But I find myself considering the present and the past decade. Do I want more of the same? Do I believe the Tories? Since the imposition of austerity in 2010, has the UK become a stronger, safer, more prosperous, more cultural, more law-abiding, more civilised country? If not, who has been in power since 2010? Answer: the Tories, along with five years of LiberalDemocratEnablers. They have presided over:

• an increase in the national debt (so those austerity measures worked, didn’t they?)

1. £850 billion in 2010 to £1.786 trillion by December 2018
2. £175 billion spend on Emergency Brexit stimulus by Bank of England (Brexit, remember, was initiated by the Tories and they have had over three years to implement it and the first attempts to make it happen were THWARTED by the Tories themselves)
3. 86 million pounds spent on non-existent ferries
4. £1 billion to bribe the DUP into a form of coalition that ended disastrously
5. shameful increase in child poverty (32 - 35% of UK children in this category now)
6. 80% of the 5.3 million self employed live below the poverty line
7. 185,000 deaths attributed to the austerity measures brought in by the Tories and LibDems
8. 150% increase in student debt (student fees up 300%)
9. GDP fallen to -0.1%
10. Sterling against the Euro and the USD fallen by 15%
11. 25 – 30 % cut to all government departments
12. 25 – 30 % cut to local councils, mainly centred on Labour councils

• a degrading of health

1. 2400% increase in the use of food banks
2. 10,000 fewer medical professionals and there is now a dangerous nurse shortage
3. 25,000 fewer bed spaces for mental illness
4. 25% cuts for our disabled community
5. 80% cuts to Mobility allowance
6. increase in teenage suicide by 70%
7. suicide up 12% in the year 2018
8. self harm among young women up 70%
9. life expectancy down 3 years
10. NHS satisfaction level at lowest recorded rate
11. and don't get me started on the current lies about what hospital "buildings" they are currently promising

• education

1. over 1000 Sure Start centres closed
2. over 700 libraries closed
3. eradication of the Education Maintenance Allowance
4. 36,000 teachers have left the profession and there is now a teacher shortage

• crime and justice

1. 25,000 fewer police
2. 20,000 fewer prison officers
3. increase of 50% in hate crimes
4. increase of knife crime by 150% to 22,000 per year

• infrastructure (especially housing and transport)

1. 1000% increase in homelessness
2. 1,200% increase in rough sleeping
3. mass evictions caused by the bedroom tax
4. Zero starter homes built, despite Tory flagship programme
5. Council home building down 90% since 2010
6. 200,000 social homes lost since 2010
7. one million families on council home waiting list
8. 100,000 increase on the council home waiting list since 2010
9. 10,000 fewer firefighters
10. over 650 football pitches closed
11. manufacturing, contruction and auto industries in recession
12. half of local councils are facing bankruptcy
13. Claims of “job creation” are masked by self-employed, ZeroHoursContracts and gig economy causing the OECD to suggest the unemployment rate in the UK is really 13% if you calculate the 3 million hidden unemployed

Voting for more of the same?
We are an entrenched country of foodbanks and multimillionaires. How can that be? And yet it is likely that many people in the UK will still vote for the Tories, the “nasty party.’ The party of the few, not the many. How long, in normal life, would you give someone the benefit of the doubt? Has almost 10 years been long enough to make improvements? 10 years! Are you going to vote for more of the same?

4% African (where birds fly, so can I)

Spot the Finn, the Italian, the Nigerian, the North African, the Englander, the Celt....

Temba Dance Company
At some point in the mid-1980s, in my first teaching job, in the middle of a sweaty, hectic, inspiring dance workshop at Leek’s Westwood High School, an African performer spoke prophetically to me. She was an older, hefty, charismatic woman who was a senior figure in Temba Dance Company (now sadly disbanded I believe). We’d just run through some energetic routine and she had been a circling observer, wandering around the room, encouraging, cajoling, cheering, whooping at the staff and teenagers – all age groups, all abilities – who were being put through their paces. She clasped my hands and, publically and loudly declared as the room felt silent – “My God, My God, Mr Johnson, I swear you have African blood in you.” People laughed. I laughed. We carried on. But it lodged as a significant moment in my life and, yes, I’ve told it as a story many times since, especially at times when my moves on a dance floor have been on the agenda…. and usually as a story to amuse. But I hardly dared tell people that I believed her at the time in a weird supernatural way.

She was telling the true truth
And so to our DNA tests. (I have the right to believe what I want to believe!) I expected to have Scandinavian DNA because of my Viking surname. I thought there might be Celtic in me from an instinctive set of feelings. I romantically hoped there’d be Italian because of my love for that country’s history, food and drink. And what came up? (See above.) 4% African (3.2% North African and 0.9% Nigerian.) The wise Temba dancer was right all along…. I always thought Sally and I were drawn together by our love of Yorkshire, shared political values, sense of humour, instincts for generosity and open-mindedness and desire to build a nest…. but looking at our DNA results, could it have been my ancestral 0.9% Nigerian DNA calling to Sally’s 1.2% Nigerian DNA?

Endeavour and Hadrian’s Wall
There was a great moment in a recent Endeavour on TV at an imagined Oxford Union debate where a black student invited the racist person who was arguing that all people who were not originally in England should be repatriated to their country of origin and the black student delivered the punchline “after you!” Humans are migratory animals. History, archaeology and anthropology have all proved this long ago. Accents and language demonstrate it. Customs and religion colour it. If President Trump were to send all the immigrants in the United States back to their own countries, then only Native Americans would remain. In the UK the earliest people we know about definitively were the Celts and we know they bred with Belgians, Germans and French before the Romans arrived. But Hadrian’s Wall had a massive impact. For over 400 years, troops from all round the Roman Empire manned the Wall (and womaned the settlements around the Wall.) Many bred. Many never left when the Romans retreated. We’ve been a mongrel, immigrant nation from the very earliest times. (Any alt-right readers who want to argue this point should read this hyperlinked article first which has its own links to supporting evidence.) So I’m proud of my African ancestry. It shows I belong. Here on planet Earth. Where boundaries and borders are imaginary human constructs. Where birds fly, so can I.

Celtic/English woods (at Bolton Abbey), candles imported from Scandinavia, vinegar and oil and wine from various parts of Europe and textiles and table mats from Africa....?

Blog Two Hundred

August 2014.... final days living temporarily down South

Blog Two Hundred
Welcome to my 200th blog. Time to look back. Older? Wiser? Healthier? Back when I started writing a blog (in August 2014 - see pictures above) I’d just taken early retirement and had a dream of trying to write (and finish) a novel. I imagined blogging might make me produce words that were spewed out regularly into cyberspace. It might teach me about writing deadlines and train me to keep on writing, keep on churning out stuff that might form into a novel. Well, now in 2018 (see pictures below) my bucket list dream of writing (and finishing) a novel is approaching fruition.

Scenes from March 2018 including birthday pals Sally & Maggie, at Salt's Mill with bass player and sterling friend, Dudley Phillips, Emily, Harriet and Chris. (An Autumn pudding for wintry Spring and a new laptop.) 

Blogspot Data
Comparing Blog One Hundred (31st May 2016) with the stats of Blog Two Hundred:

• TheReadinessIsAllLetBe had been visited (in early June 2016) over 13,000 times
• Now the visitor tally is 36,638
• Back then people in 76 countries had followed links to the site
• Now, it’s 104 countries (I don’t expect that to go any higher)
• The most frequent countries to visit my blog in 2016, apart from the UK, were the US, Ireland, Russia, France and Germany
• Now, China has replaced France in the top 6
• The most frequently-mentioned topics in 2016 were: Family, Shakespeare, History, Yorkshire and Reading
• Now, Writing has replaced Reading in the top 5

Apart from Family weddings, parties and holidays the most popular blogs (so far) seem to be about Wine, the Catholic Church, Brexit, the “Tampon Tax,” the book H is for Hawk and the film God’s Own Country. So much for my ambition (back when I started in August 2014) to focus on the works of William Shakespeare!

March 2018 - Sally's birthday - What stature is she of? asks Jacques. "Just as high as my heart."

Frequency of posting
I posted

• 25 times in 2014
• 50 times in 2015
• 60 times in 2016 (5 per month)
• 60 times in 2017 (5 per month)
• 5 so far in 2018 (working to 3 per month this year)

I’ve reduced the number of blog posts to 3 per month in order to spend more time writing Rhenium Tales, my trilogy for the Young Adult market that is moving along apace. July 2018 is my personal deadline for submitting it to professional agents. A few people (in addition to First Reader Emily) are getting glimpses and giving me feedback. Nick Shelton has produced brilliant designs for particular aspects of the story. Book 2 is pouring out reasonably easily and Book 1, Raydan Wakes, is about a third of the way through its final edit before submission.

I started this blog in August 2014. Time passes and now....

Funny how…. Time will tell….
Funny how time goes by…. Funny how in August 2014 I had no idea who Raydan Brain was, or Vera Valente, or Pheebus Yadiel…. Rhenium was a rare element in the periodic table, used in the manufacture of aeroplanes…. now, to me, Rhenium’s a planet in a galaxy far, far away. Only Time Will Tell whether Rhenium, Pheebus, Vera and Raydan will become familiar to anyone else…. In the summer of 2014 I didn't imagine the arctic weather of March 2018. Now I can. Back in 2014 I didn't know Chris Grimley. Now I do. Here’s to the next 100 blogs!

Can Spring be far behind?

Not necessarily in the right order

Andrew Preview with Eric and Ernie

The late great Eric Morecambe
In the celebrated sketch with Andrew Preview (André Previn), Morecambe and Wise trick the great composer and conductor into raising his baton to steer Eric Morecambe through a performance of Grieg’s Piano Concerto. Of course Ernie is insanely wound up trying to make things go smoothly and Eric is full of advice for the orchestra (“not too heavy on the banjos”!) But the line that is quoted most often (by me anyway) is when Mr Preview (as he is still addressed by taxi drivers apparently) roars at Eric that he is playing “all the wrong notes” and Eric grabs André Previn (the epitome of a good sport) by the frock coat lapels and exasperatedly growls at him “I am playing all the right notes – but not necessarily in the right order!”

Stephen King
In his superb On Writing Stephen King recounts the story of a friend of James Joyce who visited to find the genius Irish author sprawled in agony over his desk at the end of his writing day. The conversation went something like this:

Friend: James, what’s wrong? Is it the work?
James Joyce: (nods in despair)
Friend: How many words did you get today?
James Joyce: Seven.
Friend: But James…. that’s good, at least for you.
James Joyce: Yes, I suppose it is…. but I don’t know what order they go in!

60 to 36
I’m not equating myself with either Eric Morecambe or James Joyce, but I know how they feel…. sometimes I think I’ve got the right words in my writing but they’re not in the right order, and sometimes I think what's drafted and redrafted could be better. Oh, the agonies of composition. What I have realised (something I taught to teenagers but now I know it’s true in reality because of my experience as a retirement-hobby writer) is another insight from Stephen King:
To write is human, to edit is divine
One decision I’ve made (since I’ve now embarked on writing Book 2 (and editing Book 1) of my Rhenium Tales trilogy) is that to stand any chance of finishing my magnum opus, the frequency of my blog posts needs to reduce. So from next year, instead of 5 posts a month, I’m going to aim for 3 posts a month (36 a year instead of 60 a year.) I started my blog in August 2014 as way of disciplining myself to “publish” something regularly whether I wanted to or not and I’ve mostly managed that but I have to acknowledge that Raydan’s story is tugging at my mind more insistently than ever and I have to manage time more efficiently.

Omit needless words
In his second forward to On Writing Stephen King quotes from Strunk and White’s The Elements of Style (published in 1918.) King absolutely believes in the Rule 17 in the chapter entitled Principles of Composition. Rule 17 reads: “Omit needless words.” Therefore….

Strong and stable

1974
It's very hard to make sense of Tory leaders over the years - holding elections or referenda thinking they know exactly what the outcome will be. I remember as a teenager being very muddled in 1974 with three day weeks, IRA bombings, a general strike in Northern Ireland and in February Ted Heath called a "Who Governs?" General Election. Mind you, Ringo Starr and Barbara Streisand had been at Number One (You're Sixteen and The Way We Were) so no wonder I was muddled (Terry Jacks's Seasons in the Sun, anyone?)
78.7%
Wouldja believe the turnout was nearly 79%? I don't know if that was a record but it certainly felt like all the adults around me were engaged in the arguments, eventually concluding that Ted Heath had asked the wrong question. And duly gave Harold Wilson the Labour keys to Number Ten, albeit with a minority but firmed up the following October with a majority. Wrong question, Ted: the people want you to lead, invest, care and secure not to play party-boosting games. You can't use the electorate to shore up your popularity within the party! The same mistake made by diddy David Cameron, friend of the porcine population, when he called the EU referendum; he hadn't a clue what the British people were thinking. Just as evil clown, Theresa May did, believing the country had only one thing on their mind - Brexit and "strong and stable" leadership. Never mind Education, Health - Physical and Mental, Social Care, Austerity, Cuts to Public Services like Police, Fire Stations and Ambulance Crews. There may not be a money tree, but that money comes flying out of somewhere when the banks need bailing out....and isn't it time someone took tax evasion seriously? And explained the true meaning of tax and what it does for a civilised country....

I'm worried about Theresa May's ability to hold it together with the DUP, particularly when I drill down to their policies, many of their members' attitudes to universal human rights and their approach to the border with Ireland. I've read about their robust negotiating tactics. At least Cameron's answer to a hung parliament was to climb under the covers with the benign Liberal Democrats. And May's weak and wobbly record (no matter how often you pretend to be strong and stable) reveals she is likely to cave in as soon as The Daily Mail says "Boo!". Maybe not. Time will tell.
Another General Election, anyone? Those pesky kids might turn out in even more force next time - and maybe we could get to the level of 1974 - 78.7% turnout! What a wonderful world that would be.

Reasons to be fearful

How fearful should we be of terrorism?

Answer: horribly fearful if we are caught in the midst of an atrocity. I know if I was caught up in or nearby a terrorist attack I would be petrified. But should the anticipation of an atrocity generate fear in our everyday living? If we allow terrorism to generate morbid fear, are we not fulfilling the hopes and desires of the terrorist? In statistical terms our chances of being hurt by a terrorist attack in the western world are infinitesimal in comparison to other things we should be fearful of but aren’t. We are more likely to be killed by cars or the effects of sugar or the consequences of excessive alcohol. Women are more likely to be killed by domestic violence. If we live in America we are statistically more likely to be killed by a gun, either intentionally or accidentally – and by a person we know rather than a terrorist.

Think don’t feel….

A cool look at UK official statistics should help us reconsider what we worry about:

• In the UK between 1970 and 1984 there were 2,211 deaths caused by terrorism
• In the UK between 1985 and 1999 there were 1,094 deaths caused by terrorism
• In the UK between 2000 and 2015 there were 90 deaths caused by terrorism

Look at those numbers again: in three 15-year periods, deaths from terrorism in the UK have fallen from over 2,000, to just over 1,000 to less than 100; but the Media do not portray it that way. Looking back to my years as a teenager, despite the efforts of the IRA, it would be easy to think that the 1970s was a terrorist-lite period, compared to now. But the facts tell me that it was a far more threatening time. The 1970s and early 1980s were statistically more dangerous (as far as terrorism goes) than 2017.

What SHOULD we be afraid of?
By way of contrast to the terrorism statistics:

• In the UK over 100 women every year (NOT every 15 years) are murdered by their partner
• In the UK over 1,700 people are killed every year in road traffic accidents (down from over 3,500 in 2003, which is a good news story but I don’t know why terrorism provokes more fear and outrage than our acceptance of deaths by traffic, given the statistics)
• Hidden sugars in food contribute to obesity, organ disease and diabetes; more people suffer from the food industry’s over-use of sugar than from terrorist atrocities. Why aren’t we afraid of sugar?
• In the UK over 8,000 people every year die as a result of the excess consumption of alcohol, but the scare stories about alcohol are few and far between. We are not afraid of alcohol in the same way we are afraid of terrorism.

Is it the same in the USA?

• In the US in the last decade, fewer than 60 people have been killed by terrorist incidents
• In the US in the last decade, more than 280,000 people have been killed by “violence-related gun deaths”

If you extend the statistics to include the year of 9/11 World Trade Tower attacks, gun deaths still outnumber terrorist deaths many many many more times. The countries where terrorism is justifiably worth worrying about are Iraq, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Syria and Pakistan.

Go Figure.

Why does the western Media stoke fear about terrorism? To gruesomely entertain us or increase our addiction to bad news? To generate more income for the source of the story by attracting viewing figures, readers or clickbait? Could it be, could it be, could it be, could it be, could it possibly be…. in the interests of the moneyed classes to perpetuate fear to justify financial and political alliances that prop up lucrative arms deals and justify budgets that divert money away from social care, the environment, transport, education and health? Surely not….

Time will tell

The tree of life, the tables of plenty and the pleasures of friendship

The epoch of incredulity
I’ve quoted this before, and I’m going to quote it again, surely one of the best openings of any novels from any age – from Dicken’s A Tale of Two Cities:

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way….

Emily and Harriet in 2016

The best of times
On a personal level, 2016 has been a very happy year with some great reading, memorable theatre, excellent TV, terrific cinema. I’ve started to write an epic dystopian saga (yes, I have) and my first reader, daughter Emily, has given me astute feedback; Nick Shelton has turned pictures in my head for Rhenium Tales into some wonderful illustrations. Sally and I had a lovely time at our 30th wedding anniversary party in July and we’ve had relaxing holidays in Scotland, France, Barcelona and London and gorgeous weekends in Badby.

Will the world in The Rhenium Wars become as vivid in my imagination as Middle Earth or Westeros....?

Unbelievable times
But then two unbelievable political outcomes were, for me, very unsettling: the UK voted to leave the European Union and Donald Trump won the US election to become the next President of the United States. Time will tell. Will the people who voted for Brexit and the people who voted for Trump get what they hoped for when they cast their ballot? We’ll look back in ten years and better understand the answer to that question. Time will tell.

More progress was made on LGBTQIA rights in 2016 which, according to the New Testament, would please Jesus

2016 in History
Will 2016 be known historically as the year in which more celebrities died than in any other year?

• Writers: Richard Adams, Edward Albee, Sally Brampton, Anita Brookner, Umberto Eco, Dario Fo, AA Gill, Barry Hines, Carla Lane, Harper Lee, Peter Shaffer, William Trevor, Arnold Wesker
• TV Performers: Caroline Aherne, Sylvia Anderson, Ronnie Corbett, Paul Daniels, Cliff Michelmore, Garry Shandling, Tony Warren, Sir Terry Wogan, Victoria Wood, Sir Jimmy Young
• Musicians: David Bowie, Leonard Cohen, Keith Emerson, Greg Lake, Sir Neville Marriner, Sir George Martin, Peter Maxwell Davies, George Michael, Rick Parfitt, Prince, Guy Woolfenden
• Actors: Jean Alexander, Alexis Arquette, Kenny Baker, Patty Duke, Frank Finlay, Carrie Fisher, Zsa Zsa Gabor, George Kennedy, Burt Kwouk, Debbie Reynolds, Alan Rickman, Lord Brian Rix, Andrew Sachs, Sheila Sim, Liz Smith, Peter Vaughan, Robert Vaughn, Gene Wilder, Anton Yelchin
• Cinema giants: Sir Ken Adam, Michael Cimino, Garry Marshall, Douglas Slocombe, Robert Stigwood, Michael White, Vilmos Zsigmond, 
• Sports figures: Muhammad Ali, Johan Cruyff, Arnold Palmer
• World stage, politicians and faith figures: Rabbi Lionel Blue, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, Lord Asa Briggs, Fidel Castro, Jo Cox, Zaha Hadid, Nancy Regan, Janet Reno, Margaret Rhodes, Duke of Westminster, Elie Wiesel

Triumphs in spite of Disasters
The competitors who flew to Brazil will no doubt remember 2016 as the Rio Olympics Summer. The people of Cuba may see the year as one in which their country changed its outlook on the world. Barack Obama became the first US President to visit the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park in Japan. Mission Juno resulted in a spacecraft being placed in a twenty month orbit around Jupiter. Solar power, virtual reality, nanotechnology in surgery and electric cars all made significant technological progress. Ebola was almost eradicated from West Africa and combating the Zika virus saw impressive international cooperation. 70,000 Muslim clerics declared a fatwa against ISIS. Strides were made in cancer treatments, Alzheimer’s research and animal conservation.

What will 2017 bring to the table?

Disasters in spite of Triumphs
Terrorists continue to attempt to disrupt civilisations across Europe, the Middle and Far Easts, Africa and America. The UK lost face (and is continuing to lose face) internationally as a result of the Brexit referendum and the inability of the government to project clarity and consistency in how to “take back control,” as if it ever could in a world of globalization and the internet. Post-truth news became a “thing” (ie making up facts and statistics and promoting lies seems now to be an acceptable strategy for political leaders, fully supported by the majority of the Media.) The Syrian crisis deepened, as did crises in Yemen, the South China Seas and the Korean peninsula. Natural disasters resulted in major death tolls in Ecuador, Italy, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, southeastern USA and Indonesia.

What is now remembered about the 16th year of each century in the past millennium? Can history help us predict which events of 2016 will be remembered in 2116? Time will tell.

1916 

• First World War ongoing: Conscription in Britain, Paris bombings, Battle of Verdun (1 million casualties), the Great Arab Revolt, Battle of the Somme (first use of British tanks, over 1 million casualties) 
• The Easter Rising in Ireland - republican rebellion against British rule in Ireland
• Einstein's Theory of Relativity
• Tristan Tzar's Dada-manifest published in Zurich leading the way to surrealism and absurdity

1816

• Mount Tambora erupts in Indonesia – the Year without a Summer 
• The wreck of The Medusa (French frigate)
  

1716

• First slaves arrive in Louisiana 
• Decree orders all Jews to be expelled from Brussels
  

1616

• Ben Jonson becomes poet laureate and in November his Collected Works are printed 
• Spanish Inquisition delivers an injunction to Galileo 
• Shakespeare and Cervantes both die on 23rd April 
• Pocahontas arrives in England

1516

• Venice creates First Jewish ghetto 
• Ottoman-Malmuk War
  

1416

• Alfonso V (the Magnanimous) becomes King of Aragon 
• Jerome of Prague burned alive as a heretic by Roman Catholic church
  

1316

• The Peace of Fexhe established power sharing between many sectors of society (crown, clergy, nobility and local city governments) 
• French king, Jan the First, rules for only four days before he inconveniently dies
  

1216

• French crown prince Louis enters England at invitation of rebellious barons 
• King John loses the crown jewels in The Wash and dies in October
• Henry III succeeds John and reigns for 56 years, the 4th longest English reign after Elizabeth II, Victoria and George III ("English reign" by counting from 1000 to present time since "British" or "UK" didn't exist for all that time)
  

1116

• China invents the modern stitched-together book

1016

• The Danes defeat the Saxons at the Battle of Ashingdon 
• Canute (Cnut) claims the English throne after the death of Edmund Ironside
  

So how will 2016 be remembered?

Only Time will tell....

Remain or Brexit pursued by a (Russian) bear?

Harriet's birthday at Bolton Abbey.... Harriet's French-speaking job is in the balance....

Contemplating potential sadness

Being retired I have been able to spend many hours reading about tomorrow’s EU referendum. I have tried to read more Brexit than Remain arguments because some of the people I love are contemplating voting to leave the EU and I want to be able to understand if the vote does not go the way I hope. My initial instinct was to Vote Remain, largely because I believe that global cooperation is a better future for mankind than individual countries going it alone; but the more I have read and studied, the more I am now a Remainer by absolute conviction. If tomorrow the country votes to leave the EU, I will be extremely sad.

The Botanist in Leeds - need to celebrate Life, Birth, Optimism, Future....

Rocking the boat

The UK is currently in a gradually improving recovery period – and it seems to me that Rocking the Boat would take us backwards politically, economically, culturally, historically and philosophically. If we Brexit tomorrow, not only will we need a bigger boat, we will have to start – without hesitation – building a brand new boat, on our own, without instructions! That might work if we could

• operate in glorious isolation and ignore the rest of the world
• close our island borders
• fill all the vacancies in the jobs that Brits don’t want to do
• trade with only ourselves until we can renegotiate all the international deals that we currently have by being a member of the EU. The historical pattern of international trade has involved in the first place multilateral negotiations centred around the World Trade Organisation, currently dominated by the US and the EU; and, then, a new wave of bilateral trade deals involving major negotiations with a whole series of countries including the US, China, India, Indonesia, the Phillipines – in these deals the EU is the world leader and these are the ones we would have to negotiate as an individual country (“back of the queue”as President Obama pointed out). Unless of course we applied to join the Single Market and thereby accept free movement of people…
• and re-integrate the 1.2 million non-taxpaying ex-pat (mostly) pensioners from Spain, France and Italy whose residency rights in Europe will have to be negotiated according to the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties which is very explicit: the acquired rights of states are preserved upon termination of a treaty; but the situation of natural and legal persons is to be determined by agreement (either in advance or upon exit.) The EU Treaties make no provision in advance; residency rights have to be agreed upon withdrawal. If they all have to return, they will become a (non-contributing) drain on our current resources.

Labour In

My Mum always voted what Labour voted and the official Labour line is Labour In. Thus, in honour of my Mum the past two weeks, I have been out leafleting, pounding the local pavements with Labour In campaign leaflets and I am now living in a house with a Labour In garden post.

For whom the bell tolls

No man is an island,
Entire of itself,
Every man is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less.
As well as if a promontory were.
As well as if a manor of thy friend's
Or of thine own were:
Any man's death diminishes me,
Because I am involved in mankind,
And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls;
It tolls for thee.
(John Donne)

Overwhelming support from admirable sources

Why are people suddenly frightened about intelligent expert opinion? About evidence-based research? If you were going to have an operation, you would want an expert to operate on you. If you were going to send an astronaut to the International Space Station, you would want an expert to go there. It is perverse to disagree with the overwhelming number of intelligent individuals and groups who are supporting the Remain campaign with public and detailed letters (references can all be found on the Wikipedia page here):

• 1,285 business leaders in a letter to The Times today
• 200 senior Healthcare Professionals working for the UK NHS right here, right now
• 150 scientists and researchers working in all branches of Science, led by Professor Stephen Hawking
• Over 100 university leaders
• 279 leading economists
• 300 leading lawyers
• 300 leading historians
• the 18 most senior leaders of the Armed and Security Forces
• Premier Football League boss, Richard Scudamore and Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger (who both want the UK national teams to stay in the Euro Football Tournament)
• 300 Writers, Artists, Architects, Actors, Directors, Painters, Comedians, including, for example, Eddie Izzard, JK Rowling, Jo Brand, Tracey Emin
• 25 of 30 Cabinet Ministers
• President Obama and the vast majority of world leaders
• 25 major newspapers and magazines including The BMJ and The Lancet (health professionals), The Farmers Weekly, The Economist and, surprisingly, The Mail on Sunday and The Times (possibly because of the letters they have been sent)
• 16 Local Government Authorities
• major organisations like the CBI, National Farmers Union, Universities UK, Quakers, Friends of the Earth, the Round Table, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, the TUC (and all major trade unions including the Fire Brigades Union and UNISON)
• Archbishops of York and Canterbury, 
• CEOs of All UK Airports
• Bosses of Asda, Aviva, BAE Systems, BMW UK, BP, BT, Burberry, Cisco, Dixons, Easyjet, Ford UK, Fujisu UK, Jaguar UK, Lastminute, Lloyd’s, London Stock Exchange, M&S, Mothercare, National Express, National Grid, Ocado, 02, Pearsons, Prudential, River Café. Rolls Royce UK, Ryanair, Santander UK, Shell UK, Siemens, TalkTalk, Unilever, VirginMedia, VirginMoney
• The Labour Conference on the basis of
• jobs
• investment in our economy
• protections for workers and consumers
• increased security that cooperation with our continental neighbours provides

Brexiters include:

• Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Michael Gove, Ian Duncan Smith
• Dennis Skinner and Frank Field (latter two Labour MPs I greatly respect but disagree with on this topic)
• the Shipley MP Philip Davies (my own MP....)
• Donald Trump, former Australian PM John Howard
• Rupert Murdoch
• Katie Hopkins, Julian Fellowes, Michael Caine
• The Sun, The Daily Mail, The Daily Express and another 9 newspapers including the Communist The Morning Star 
• 5 declared major employers: Aspall Cider, Go Ape, JCB, Tate and Lyle and Wetherspoons

Do I want to ally myself with these people?

Brexit pursued by a (Russian) bear

Not a Shakespeare reference to The Winter’s Tale this time, but my worry that Russia will celebrate the most if the UK leaves the EU. A fractured Europe would please Putin profoundly; the list of conflicts between and within European states suggests that it won’t be long before rivalries erupt if, as predicted, a Brexit leads eventually to a collapse of the whole European project and the end of the single market, the most advanced trade agreement on the planet (currently with no close competitor.) Time and again throughout our history we have entered European conflicts, sometimes starting them by way of conquest and sometimes in order to protect our independence by stopping another power from swallowing smaller countries. Michael Dougan’s lecture summarising the reasons to Remain is very persuasive and his further comments (on the university of Liverpool website) about immigration are compelling.

If you’re not prejudiced against experts, and are still unsure which way to vote, some extracts from their letters are below

Extract from what the NHS professionals wrote:

"As health professionals and researchers we write to highlight the valuable benefits of continued EU membership to the NHS, medical innovation and UK public health…. We have made enormous progress over decades in international health research, health services innovation and public health. Much has been built around shared policies and capacity across the EU…. EU trade deals will not privatise the NHS as the EU negotiating position now contains clear safeguards. Decisions on NHS privatisation are in UK government hands alone. EU immigration is a net benefit to our NHS in terms of finances, staffing and exchanges…. leaving the EU would not provide a financial windfall for the NHS".

Extract from what the university leaders wrote:

"Inside the EU, we are better able to collaborate with partners from across Europe to carry out cutting edge research, from medical and healthcare advances, to new materials, products and services. In the EU, the UK is also a more attractive destination for global talent, ensuring that our students are taught by the best minds from across Europe. This has a direct impact on our economy, driving growth, generating jobs and ultimately improving people’s lives".

Extract from what the leading historians wrote:

"On 23 June, we face a choice: to cast ourselves adrift, condemning ourselves to irrelevance and Europe to division and weakness; or to reaffirm our commitment to the EU and stiffen the cohesion of our continent in a dangerous world.

Extract from today’s letter to The Times by business leaders:

"Sir, We own and run more than 1,200 businesses, from micro companies to the FTSE 100, employing more than 1.75 million people. We know our firms are stronger in Europe. Our reasons are straightforward: businesses and their employees benefit massively from being able to trade inside the world’s largest single market without barriers. As business people, we always look to the future — and a future inside the EU is where we see more opportunities for investment, growth and new jobs."

Extra material from Professor Michael Dougan addressing immigration:

"– a significant majority of the foreign nationals living in the UK (2/3 at the last national census), and over half the net immigration each year, come from outside the EU. That is almost entirely within our own domestic competence and power – we seem to be good at immigration, without needing any help from the EU.
– as regards those EU nationals who come to the UK: it is completely dishonest of prominent Leave campaigners repeatedly to claim that there is some sort of unconditional right to move to and settle in another Member State. We all have a right to circulate – that is the basis on which, e.g. we go on holiday to Spain and France. But when it comes to settling in another country, there are three main categories of right under EU law:
for the economically active (ie in work and paying taxes)
for students (eg enrolled at university and thus paying tuition fees)
and for those wealthy enough to look after themselves and their families without relying on public benefits.
There is no right to “benefit tourism” under EU law.
– Against that background, it is unsurprising to find that – according to all the objective social science research – EU migrants are significantly more likely to be younger, better qualified and economically active; they pay far more into the country in work and taxes than they take out in public benefits or services.
– When it comes to the particular situation of Eastern European migrants, we are rarely reminded of the fact that the UK was one of only three Member States (the others being Ireland and Sweden) that chose not to impose transitional restrictions on the rights to free movement of new EU citizens during the “Big Bang” enlargement of 2004. We chose to let these people come here as we did; no one forced us to and we could have decided otherwise. Small wonder that many other Europeans regard the UK debate as rather hypocritical.
– And nor should we forget that free movement is a two way street. Massive numbers of UK nationals travel for pleasure, study and work around the EU – taking advantage of all the benefits and convenience and protection EU law offers. Around 2 million UK nationals have also settled in other Member States – and the objective social science research suggests that those migrants are more likely to be economically inactive, ie they are not actively contributing through work and taxes to their host society. Again – small wonder other Europeans think there is a real double standard at work in the UK debate.
– It is also worth recalling that the accession of future Member States requires the unanimous agreement of the 28 governments plus their national ratification processes. The only large applicant is Turkey – and there is no realistic prospect of Turkey joining the EU within any of our lifetimes – not least since several countries have indicated that they would hold national referenda on any Turkish deal, obviously in the expectation that their populations would overwhelmingly reject it.”

Vote Remain!